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Premier League Betting Strategies
Each year, the festive holiday season brings lots of EPL fixtures in a short amount of time, and it’s a period where things can quickly change.
Teams can gain or lose spots in the table, players can move the Golden Boot race, and injuries can change the outlook for the campaign.
There’s lots of value to be had when betting on the Premier League if you know where to look.
I’m here to help with some tips and advice on markets you should monitor and which teams to target—and avoid—over the coming months.
To learn more about betting on soccer in general, visit our dedicated guide.
Quick Summary (TL;DR)
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Advanced metrics (e.g. expected goals) can help you understand a game a lot better than, for example, average goals scored.
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FBRef, EPL’s official site, as well as Opta and Premier Injuries’ twitter profiles are some of the good places to look for EPL info.
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Bookings, second-half totals, and goal Scorers + player shots are among the most valuable EPL betting markets.
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Some stable teams to bet on this season include Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City.
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Parlay bets are a good option for beginners, but only as a small part of your overall bankroll.
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Some prop betting markets, such as to score or assist, could be good choices for beginners.
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When deciding on your bankroll, use as a starting point “units” made up of your usual, average bets.
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Some of the top soccer betting tips I can offer is making good use of live over betting as well as yellow cards.
Premier League Betting Must-Knows
There are a few important things to remember when deciding to bet on the Premier League. The format of the league is a key one.
Every team plays every other team, once at home and once away.
This means everyone’s schedules are equal—although some can be tougher than others depending on the order in which they face teams.
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This comes into play with future bets especially, as you’ll want to keep an eye on who has already played some of their tougher fixtures versus who might have benefitted from a run of form against lesser opposition.
You’ll also need to know what teams are playing for as the season progresses.
The bottom three teams get relegated, so matchups between those teams can have big implications and will be played a bit differently than when they face better teams.
The top four teams qualify for Champions League places, and there is a lot of money that comes along with participating in that competition.
The fight for those spots will be contentious, with anywhere from seven to eight clubs vying to reach Europe’s biggest club competition.
Like with other soccer leagues, you’ll be able to bet on a variety of markets. Individual games will be the most popular and widely available.
You’ll also have access to team futures such as league winners, relegated teams, Golden Boot winners, and head-to-head finishers.
Take a look at my EPL predictions for 2023/24!
To put yourself in the best position for profitable wagering, it’s important to be up-to-date on the teams you’re looking at.
Injuries and suspensions will change a team’s lineup from match to match, and one difference in a starting XI can present opportunities for betting value—as well as impact how the team will play.
It’s also important because you’ll need to know who is facing whom.
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For example, Erling Haaland is a goal-scoring machine. But if he’s going against a defender like Virgil Van Dijk or Thiago Silva, he may not get as many opportunities to shoot as he would against a side like Burnley or Sheffield United.
Which Metrics to Look Into Before Betting
There’s quite a bit of data that you can use to set yourself up for success when betting on the Premier League. But what should you be looking at, and what data matters more than others?
The first thing I always recommend looking at is advanced metrics.
A lot of people look at things like goal differential or average goals per match.
But those stats can be misleading, since they don’t paint the full picture of the player’s or team’s potential.
Here are the top metrics I like to use when analyzing a team’s tendencies, both for and against:
- Goals Minus Expected Goals (G-xG)
- Non-Penalty Expected Goals Per Shot (npxG/Sh)
- Shots On Target Per 90 Minutes (SoT/90)
- Average Shot Distance
- Shot Creating Actions Per 90 (SCA90)
- Touches In Attacking Penalty Area
- Corner Kicks
Here’s an example of these metrics for one of Premier League’s top scorers, Erling Haaland.
Expected goals, or xG, is a metric that determines the likelihood of the average player scoring on a given shot.
It takes into account the angle of the shot, the positioning of the shooter and defenders, and whether it’s a volleyed shot or a shot from the ground.
While it’s not a perfect metric, it often helps you see if a team is finishing their chances or wasting them.
G-xG uses that metric to show you how well a team is performing against their expected goal tally.
NpxG/Sh also helps with this by letting you see if a team is efficient with their shots or if they need volume to score. SoT/90 also helps analyze this.
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Average shot distance, touches in the attacking penalty area, and corner kicks are metrics I often use to determine if a team is getting quality attempts near the goal or if they’re firing from a distance.
Corner kicks can often have higher totals if a team likes to shoot from range and is facing a team that bunkers and doesn’t allow many touches inside their penalty area.
Additionally, you’ll often have better odds for a goal from a team that gets the ball into the area and gets their shots off from closer distances.
Where to Get Relevant EPL Information
When it comes to educating yourself on Premier League data, there are a few great resources that I use and recommend for you to utilize as well.
| Source | What they offer |
| FBref | in-depth metric data |
| Opta Analyst website + Opta’s Twitter account | breakdowns on the playstyles predictive analysis |
| The club’s website | player availability, rotation, and injury status |
| Premier Injuries + Twitter (@PremierInjuries) | injury news |
| EPL website | breaking down trends such as: – players with the most shots inside the penalty area over the past few matches – which teams are creating the most chances of late. |
What Betting Markets Hold the Most Value?
There are some markets that offer more value than others when it comes to betting on the Premier League.
Locating and isolating these opportunities is key to producing consistent profit over time.
My favourite markets to attack with the Premier League are as follows:
Bookings
The Premier League has placed an increased emphasis this season on countering time wasting and dissent, and it’s led to an increase in cards shown.
I’ve been having great success with both match booking totals and individual cards.
Second-Half Totals
Adding onto the time-wasting aspect, there has been exponentially more stoppage time in the second half of games this season.
It’s another area where the Premier League is focusing, and it allows for more time for goals to be scored.
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That’s why I’ve been playing Overs either live in the second half, or at halftime.
Goal Scorers and Player Shots
I’ve been having terrific success betting on player props for anytime goalscorers and on player shots during a match.
This is one area where the market often struggles to adjust, and it can be exploited.
There are many other markets that you can take advantage of. We have an in-depth guide that goes into much more detail, and it’s a terrific resource to utilize!
Which Teams to Bet on This Season?
As always, the Premier League discussion must start with Manchester City.
The reigning champions are right in the thick of things, with an exceptionally deep roster and stars at every position.
But for the first time in recent memory, there’s an actual fight for the top spot heading into the holiday season.
As we turn the calendar to December, there are four teams within seven points of each other, with only two points separating Liverpool in second from fourth-place Aston Villa.
These teams offer some stability week-to-week, which means they’re easier to get a grasp on betting-wise.
The Gunners are hoping to pip City to the title after finishing second last season.
Arsenal has quality at all positions and are healthy, with depth helping them navigate Champions League as well.
They’ve lost just once through their first 13 matches.
The only other team with one defeat so far is Liverpool, who sit in third as of this article being written.
All three teams are clear favourites on the futures markets to win the title, as we see at Bet99.
Jurgen Klopp’s men are firing on all cylinders and recently drew 1-1 with City.
They’re a fun team to watch and they love to attack.
That’s one reason why betting on Liverpool’s forwards is a market I enjoy playing each weekend.
Whether it’s Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz, or Diogo Jota leading the line, there is value to be had with this attack.
I love betting on their forwards to score or assist, as well as betting on Salah to find the back of the net against lesser opposition.
Let’s look at their odds against Fulham with bet365. Salah has 1.90 odds to score anytime against the London-based side, against whom he’s scored in four of six starts.
With his recent form, I’d back him at that price. But I’d also look hard at Darwin Nunez, who scored a goal and assisted another in two meetings with them last season.
His price of 2.10 to score anytime is a good bet as well.
City’s in a similar situation, although markets tend to lose value for them.
Erling Haaland is such a threat that he’s often not worth betting on to score.
But the players around him can present good returns on assists, especially if it’s a player who wasn’t expected to start.
Haaland’s also going to present some betting value to get an assist.
He’s got three this season through 13 matches, and had eight a season ago.
As you see here, bet365 is offering him to return $40 on a $10 wager to assist a goal against Spurs.
While I’d want a bit higher price, it’s not a bad bet, considering they’ll focus heavily on stopping him from scoring.
Another team I’ve focused on betting this season is Brighton.
Now, I wouldn’t call them consistent in terms of their performances, as they’ve gone 6-4-3 in their first 13 matches.
But what they are consistently doing is scoring goals—and conceding them.
In fact, through the first 13 fixtures, Brighton has scored the fourth-most goals and allowed the fourth-most goals.
What does that mean for you and me as bettors? First, it means the Over 2.5 market is a must-play most weeks, either straight up or in a parlay.
10 of their matches went Over during that period, with eight actually seeing at least four goals.
But Brighton is also a “Both teams to score” machine.
According to Opta, they head into December having both scored and conceded in 17 consecutive Premier League matches, the longest such stretch in the history of the league.
Unfortunately, what was an easy pair of bets is no longer, as the markets have caught up.
That’s where you can get creative. Brighton’s matches going over and both teams scoring typically go hand-in-hand, so why not parlay them?
For example, their match against Chelsea offers the pair in a same-game parlay on bet365 for 1.83 odds.
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That’s better than playing them each individually at around 1.50 odds. It’s also a terrific play that is going to come through more often than not right now.
There are other teams worth playing as well, and I encourage you to watch teams like Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United.
Look for tendencies with who attacks, who shoots a lot, and who commits fouls.
Explore the player prop and game prop markets and look for areas where you feel you have an advantage.
Premier League Parlay Bets
As I mentioned earlier with Brighton, parlaying different wagers in the Premier League is something I enjoy doing and typically find success on.
Many people think a parlay must be this exotic 10-leg bet that pays out 2500.00, but in reality, those are nothing more than lottery tickets most of the time.
A good parlay allows you to take multiple items, perhaps just two like with our example before, and put them together for one of two reasons:
- to lower the juice to a more reasonable number, or
- to get a higher payout for something you strongly feel correlates and will reward you more for correctly predicting.
Another example is the Arsenal and Wolverhampton. The Arsenal money line is 1.28, which is far too juiced for me to recommend playing.
But it makes sense, given Arsenal defeated them 5-0 at home back in May.
To that point, the Over 2.5 goals is also asking you to lay a lot. With odds of 1.65, you’d have to risk $10 just to return $6.50 in profit.
But what happens if I combine the two?
I don’t see Wolves having much of a chance slowing down the Arsenal attack, considering their previous five matches all went over the 2.5-goal mark.
They also haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last six on the road and have just two wins from eight away in all competitions.
Therefore, these two lines work in conjunction with each other.
By creating a same-game parlay at Betano, I can now get odds of 1.88 and eliminate having to risk a larger stake than the profit returned.
This is a great time to utilize a parlay.
You don’t have to do this with items in the same game, though. I could parlay the Arsenal moneyline with a moneyline from another match.
Or with anything from another match, really.
Let’s say I want to put the Both Teams to Score bet from the aforementioned Brighton vs Chelsea match in a parlay with Arsenal’s money line.
Doing so at Betano gives me solid odds of 2.04 and eliminates the juice entirely from both wagers.
One trap many people fall into is using a parlay to combine multiple low-odds wagers.
You may think since all four options have a high likelihood of hitting, it means the parlay’s a strong one.
But that’s not presenting you with very good value. Let’s take an example from Betano, where I’m combining four plays that all have odds no higher than 1.35 for a return.
You’ll notice the odds for the entire parlay is just 3.27—in other words, you’re needing four things to happen in order to barely double your stake. There’s not much value in that.
Doing this for two bets to get closer to 2.00 odds is fine. But I recommend not doing that for more than three bets at most.
Instead, look to combine one or two extremely likely events with something that’s closer to even money odds.
Aston Villa is traveling to face Bournemouth and is in excellent form. They’re getting 1.98 odds at Betano to win away from home, which I think is about right.
I also think they’re going to get the result.
Look what happens to the price when I combine the Arsenal money line with the Brighton/Chelsea BTTS.
Instead of needing two additional plays to barely double my money, I now need just three plays, one of which is a bit riskier, to triple my wager!
I love to parlay player props within a game as well. We’ll go into that a bit more in the next section, but one of my favourite prop parlays is combining a goalscorer with an assist play.
For example, a recent article in The Athletic was diving into player combinations from Opta data.
They stated no player has created more scoring chances for a teammate this season than Liverpool’s Salah has for Nunez.
He set him up with an opportunity 13 times through their first 12 matches.
What’s that mean for me? Well it means if I’m looking to play Nunez to score at 2.10 odds, wouldn’t it make sense to combine that with the most likely person to assist him?
I can combine the Nunez goal with a Salah assist at bet365 and get 4.50 odds.
So not only can I bet Nunez to score, but I can put a smaller amount on that parlay, and if Salah is, in fact, the one who sets him up yet again, I’ve used that knowledge to put myself in position for a strong payday!
Again, learning how teams play together and watching which side they tend to attack down, or who links up in the attack, is critical to finding great value.
Use that insight and information to tinker and look for areas where you can find extra value for your plays.
Are EPL Prop Bets a Good Choice?
Prop bets are a terrific angle for betting on Premier League matches.
The majority of casual bettors stick with the hits—the moneyline, the total, and so on.
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They’re also one of my favourite ways to bet on matches. Whether it’s individual props like player shots or bookings, or a team prop like corner kicks or a penalty, there are plenty of options I partake in on a regular basis.
Both teams to score is a prop we’ve already discussed, and it’s a very popular one for bettors. Other types of popular game and team props include:
- Half with most goals
- Total corner kicks
- Halftime and Fulltime
- Total number of cards shown
As with any bet, knowing the matchup and understanding the tactics of the teams involved can give you an edge.
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I love to look at total corners for teams playing against Sheffield United, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest. All three are conceding nearly seven corners per contest.
If they’re facing a team that shoots on sight, that often leads to a higher number of corners resulting from saves and blocked shots.
Player props, however, are where I typically aim more of my focus.
There are so many options available that it’s difficult for most bettors to know where to look.
But for me, that’s why it presents so much more value—because the public doesn’t tend to move the lines as much.
Yellow cards are one way I tend to attack the prop bets market.
I love looking for matchups between players who tend to draw fouls, and defenders who often get caught flailing or panicking and put themselves in positions to get booked.
Take the upcoming match between West Ham and Crystal Palace.
Emerson Palmieri plays left back for the Hammers, and he’s averaging a yellow card every two matches.
A quick query on the FBref database also shows he ranks in the Top 30 in fouls committed per match, with 1.2 per 90 minutes played.
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FBref also shows that nobody is getting fouled more this season than Jordan Ayew. The Palace man is being taken down nearly four times a match, and will likely be playing on the right side of attack—going up against Emerson.
So we’ve now found a player who is getting booked 50% of his matches due to his playstyle, and a matchup against an attacker who is adept at getting the referee’s sympathy.
This presents a high probability that Emerson will see a card.
The implied odds for an Emerson yellow card based on the early odds being offered are around 20%.
Given what we know, that’s far too low. That’s an automatic play for me, under the circumstances.
The actual probability lies closer to 60%, meaning we’ve found a terrific value prop play.
I also enjoy playing tackles. This is a market that often gets overlooked, but it can offer some real value.
I’ve had some big hits this season, tailing Joao Palhinha of Fulham, whose 5.7 tackles per 90 minutes are 1.5 more than anybody else in the Premier League.
Unfortunately, he’s injured currently, so I can’t bet on him at the moment.
But the third-highest total is Vitaliy Mykolenko of Everton, who is averaging 3.8 tackles per 90 minutes.
Heading into his match with Nottingham Forest, he’s achieved three or more tackles in six of his nine appearances.
At 2.27 odds to have three or more tackles against Forest, I would likely put a unit on this play.
FBref shows Forest typically enjoys the third-lowest possession per match in the league, yet they have the ball tackled away from them on attacks at a higher rate than all but four clubs.
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With this being a match between two teams in the bottom half of the table, you’re going to see more possession than usual for Forest. This means more chances for Everton to tackle, and, thus, a higher probability than usual for Mykolenko to get his tackles.
Goalscorer props are always popular and, as we’ve discussed before, can provide some terrific betting value.
“To score or assist” is also another one I love capitalizing on, although not every book offers it.
Bet365 does, and it can be an easy way to bank on a player being involved in his team finding the back of the net.
How Much to Wager per Game
I’m a large proponent of gambling responsibly, and utilizing units is a great way to help with that.
The amount of a “unit” is that of your usual bet, so it will differ from bettor to bettor. It might be $20 for one, or $100 for another.
Unit betting means you’ll easily be able to track what you’re wagering and helps ensure you’re betting consistently and evenly.
When it comes to managing my bankroll, I rarely like to play more than five units on any one match.
Whether that’s a five unit play on one particular line because the value is exceptionally high, or it’s 10 high-priced props with a half-unit on each, I try to stay within that limit.
The reason for this is simple. If you read a match properly, you can come away with a strong payday.
However, if you’ve completely misread your analysis, limiting your exposure limits the damage and helps prevent you from being in a spot where you feel like you need to chase your losses.
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I recommend using a tracking app to monitor your bets, or a spreadsheet of some sort. It helps you limit your plays per match, and also enables you to know at a glance what you’ve already bet on so you can avoid redundant or conflicting wagers.
Watching the Games and Live Betting
I absolutely love live betting on the Premier League.
Whether it’s to find a better price on a favourite who falls behind early or to get value on either side of a total, live betting offers you opportunities to capitalize on your knowledge and feel of a particular game in real time.
One of my favourite live bets is the first-half total.
Let’s say Manchester City is playing a team in the first half that is setting up to frustrate them and hope to get a result. And let’s say they succeed for a good chunk of the first half.
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When City finally breaches their defenses, I immediately look to see what the first-half team total is for the Citizens. If it’s at least 1.75 or more, I’m jumping on it.
I can’t tell you the number of times they’ve immediately pounced on their opponents for two or even three goals before halftime against a defense that is slightly demoralized at having their plan fail.
Live betting is also great for individual player props.
Many books offer live props for anytime goalscorers, and when a good attacker comes off the bench—such as Jota or Diaz for Liverpool or Callum Wilson for Newcastle—they’ll often present much better odds than they did pre-match.
I’ve hit Wilson multiple times this season to score coming off the bench as a sub, each of which paid 5.00 or better.
That’s outstanding value for someone who has a history of scoring off the bench and would be priced closer to 2.50 if he started.
These are just a few examples of the ways you can attack live betting with the Premier League.
Check out our live soccer betting guide for even more information!
Final Expert Tips
I have a few extra tips that should help you navigate the Premier League betting odds and locate some areas where you can capitalize and turn a profit.
Betting Live Overs Gives Terrific Value
The Premier League is seeing higher goal numbers than in most years past, and the betting markets are reflecting this.
14 of the 20 teams are seeing three or more goals per match at least 60% of the time this season, with five teams having had four or more goals in at least half of their fixtures.
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I love live betting matches involving Brighton, Aston Villa, Manchester City, and West Ham if nobody has scored in the first 20 minutes. All four teams are averaging more than 3.5 goals in their fixtures through 13 weeks, and you can often get a great price if the first quarter of the match goes scoreless.
Don’t Ignore the Yellow Card Market
The Premier League has made it a point of emphasis this season to cut down on time-wasting and dissent.
In doing so, they’ve increased the number of bookings per match we’re seeing this season.
So far through 13 Matchdays, there have been 4.62 yellow cards shown per match, and that’s not counting the 29 red cards handed out.
Factor those, and you’re seeing 4.84 cards per fixture.
The markets have been catching up, but I’ve still seen quite a few matches where the booking total is set at 4.5 and that’s where I love to pounce.
Don’t forget about rivalry matches, either—as we saw when Spurs and Chelsea played earlier this season, with the referee going to his pocket on 10 different occasions and showing a pair of red cards.
FAQs
Can you make money betting on Premier League?
Absolutely! If you focus on betting for value, rather than betting simply to have something to root for, you can set yourself up to walk away with more winnings than losses on a consistent basis. Learn about positive expected value, and find wagers that provide you with +EV so that you can get an extra edge. Track your bets, see where you’re doing well and find ways to improve on where you might be a bit weak. Over time, with the right approach and strong bankroll management, you’ll set yourself up to make money in the long run!
What is the best prediction site for the Premier League?
I wouldn’t necessarily recommend any site to give you a “prediction” on a score, as I’ve yet to find one that consistently gets them right more often than they get them wrong.
However, I really like Sports Mole. They’re one of the best preview sites out there because they provide you with in-depth analysis of lineup changes and injury status, as well as giving you recent information about both teams. They also provide a predicted lineup for each side, which can be very helpful when looking at player prop bets.
The Opta Analyst site is also a terrific tool. They’ll provide you with some insight on the bigger matches, and break down the matchup at a more tactical and data-driven level. It’s another very useful site for looking at player prop angles as well as getting an idea of how the two teams may counter-balance one another during the match.
What is the most profitable soccer betting strategy?
As I mentioned above, +EV is the most profitable soccer betting strategy. +EV encourages you to only bet on plays where your expected probability is higher than the implied probability of the bookmaker’s odds. Learning about +EV can be very daunting for a new bettor, but there are plenty of resources available online. I highly encourage trying it out, because it can truly take your sports betting experience—and bankroll—to a whole new level.
